'Strong Opinions Loosely Held' explained
How to be confident without being a dick.
Strong Opinions Loosely Held (or Strong Opinions Weakly Held) is an interesting forecasting technique, proving useful in a situation of uncertainty. Rather than not giving an opinion, give an opinion without full certainty, but be ready to give it up and change your mind as more information becomes available. It is a neat concept, useful in situations that call for an opinion or a decision being made, when time is of the essence.
Original article by Paul Saffo:
https://www.saffo.com/02008/07/26/str...
Quote from the article:
"Since the mid-1980s, my mantra for this process is “strong opinions, weakly held.” Allow your intuition to guide you to a conclusion, no matter how imperfect — this is the “strong opinion” part. Then –and this is the “weakly held” part– prove yourself wrong. Engage in creative doubt. Look for information that doesn’t fit, or indicators that pointing in an entirely different direction. Eventually your intuition will kick in and a new hypothesis will emerge out of the rubble, ready to be ruthlessly torn apart once again. You will be surprised by how quickly the sequence of faulty forecasts will deliver you to a useful result."
Music:
Sunshower - LATASHÁ
Chef Brian - LATASHÁ
A Caring Friend - Bad Snacks
Luly - Text Me Records / Grandbankss
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