Trump versus Harris: Who will win the US 2024 presidential election?
Who will likely win on Tuesday 5 November 2024?
Ten years ago, John Antonakis, at HEC Lausanne of the University of Lausanne in Switzerland, and Philippe Jacquart at Emlyon France, developed a model to predict the U.S. presidential election outcome (see https://doi.org/10.5465/amj.2012.0831).
Since then, they have tweaked the model, which uses macroeconomic data and incumbency, as well as the charisma difference of the two candidates; this updated model uses data from 1916 to predict the electoral college outcome. Over the last 27 elections, the model calls the winner correctly 25 times (92.59% accuracy). See this video to understand how the model works and who will likely win the 2024 U.S. presidential eletion.
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