Balaji's Bet: Bitcoin hits $1 million in 90 days
Why is venture capitalist Balaji Srinivasan betting $2 million that a Bitcoin will be worth $1 million within 90 days? Join our conversation about the state of banking and the U.S. dollar with Srinivasan and economist Lawrence White, author of Better Money: Gold, Fiat, or Bitcoin? Hosted by Reason's Zach Weissmueller.
"You buy 1 BTC. I will send $1M USD."
Those were the stakes that venture capitalist Balaji Srinivasan proposed over Twitter to pseudonymous writer and self-described "tax enthusiast" James Medlock on March 17. The bet? Within 90 days, one bitcoin will be worth $1 million.
Medlock, who had jokingly tweeted earlier that he would "bet anyone $1 million dollars that the US does not enter hyperinflation," quickly accepted the terms. With bitcoin hovering around $26,000, Srinivasan had made an approximately 38–1 wager that "hyperbitcoinization" would unfold over the next three months as the Federal Reserve devalued the U.S. dollar to backstop the nation's shaky banks with new infusions of cash.
Critics have said the bet is a promotional ploy to launch a new media brand or to pump the price of bitcoin to increase the value of his holdings. His doubters include George Mason University economist Tyler Cowen, who predicts that "the US will muddle through its current problems and patch up the present at the expense of the future," and bitcoin mega-booster Saifedean Ammous, author of The Bitcoin Standard, who writes "I feel dirty sounding bearish on bitcoin, but I do not think bitcoin will hit $1m in 90 days & and I do not think the dollar can possibly hyperinflate this quickly."
So what is Srinivasan thinking?
Find out this Thursday at 1 p.m. Eastern as Srinivasan joins Reason's Zach Weissmueller and economist Lawrence White, author of Better Money: Gold, Fiat, or Bitcoin? to discuss the bet and their analyses of the state of the U.S. banking system.
Show notes:
Balaji Srinivasan’s bet with James Medlock - / 1636822077775941633
Federal Reserve to provide additional funds for banks, backstopped with $25 billion from the Treasury - https://archive.is/qrZYB#selection-48...
Bloomberg: Fed could inject up to $2 trillion - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...
Study on uninsured bank deposits in 2023 - https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.c...
Bloomberg: Fed discount window lending surpasses $164 billion -https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...
St. Louis Fed: Fed balance sheet since 2004 - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?id...,
Tyler Cowen: The banking crisis won’t wreck the economy - https://marginalrevolution.com/margin...
Ammous Safeidean: A bank crisis is deflationary - / 1638453109033664513
FedNow Service launches in July: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsev...
Jerome Powell addresses banking crisis and rate hikes - • Fed Chair Powell Addresses Banking Cr...
Janet Yellen voices concern for a ‘few’ banks - https://www.youtube.com/live/je-6S97K...
DeSantis announced Digital Bill of Rights - • Gov. Ron DeSantis outlines 'Digital B...
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