Lessons from China and Africa
Deaths in China
Abrupt U-turn on COVID controls on 7th December
Only people who died of respiratory failure were counted
Jiao Yahui, Bureau of Medical Administration
Between 8 December and 12 January, 59,938 Covid hospital deaths
Deaths from respiratory failure, 5,500
Rest also had underlying health conditions
Average age of death, 80
90.1% aged 65 +
Lunar new year holiday, travel has started (21 January)
Daily number going to fever clinics
Peaked at 2.9 million on 23rd December
Last Thursday, 477,000 visits
Professor Ma Jingjing, Peking University
https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Cor...
Infections, 900 million (64% of population)
Major cities, infection rates, 70% to 90%
Infection rates up to 91% in some provinces
Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention
Stopped publishing infections last week
Infection fatality rate
900 million infections, 59,938 deaths
One death per 15,015 infections
IFR = 0.006
More pessimistic estimates of 1 million deaths (1.4 billion)
One death per 1,400 infections
IFR = 0.0714
WHO welcomes data on COVID-19 in China, meeting with Minister
https://www.who.int/news/item/14-01-2...
Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus and Minister Ma Xiaowei, China’s National Health Commission
The overall epidemiology—reflecting a rapid and intense wave of disease caused by known sub-variants of Omicron
Omicron sublineages BA.5.2 and BF.7 (BA.5.2.1.7)
Arriving soon
https://assets.publishing.service.gov...
XBB.1.5.
CH.1.1
with higher clinical impact on older people and those with underlying conditions,
is similar to waves of infection experienced by other countries
Will China will become endemic?
UK, Zoe prevalence is 1 in 26
England, ONS prevalence is 1 in 25
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