Imagine a cow born at a farm. It looks around confused as human caregivers feed it daily. Hours, turn into nights, and nights turn into years, each passing day the cow gains confidence that the farmers are noble. Kind people who take care of the animals. As a result of this pattern the cow firmly believes humans are kind. Nothing in its life points to the imminent doom it will face, the reality that it will be slaughtered one day in the future. Every passing year comes as additional evidence that the farmers would never do anything harmful. But one day in the future, out of the blue the cow is taken to the slaughterhouse and turned into a steak. The ultimate betrayal, one moment in time that completely outweighs everything before it. This is what we call a Black Swan.
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