False positives and false negatives: disease screening - conditional probability - Bayes Theorem
This video explains about risk and screening, and shows how to calculate and express rates of false positives and false negatives. An imaginary disease, "Earpox" is used for the examples.
Risk is another name for probability.
0:45 Earpox represents cancer, infectious diseases, mental illness, lie detection, recruitment decisions.
1:00 Prevalence
1:25 Sensitivity
1:45 Specificity
2:34 Icon diagram
5:00 conditional probability table
6:50 using the table to answer questions.
See https://creativemaths.net/videos/ for all of Dr Nic's videos organised by topic.
For more about Bayes Theorem: • Bayes' Theorem 1: Introduction and co...
This extremely important video for anyone getting screening done for themselves or others. We generally underestimate how likely it is that a positive result is a false positive.
#DrNicStats #Probability
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