GGWP 18 w/ David Manheim - Pandemic Preparedness and 💉 Challenge Trials
And we're back! Welcome everyone to the eighteenth episode of the Global Guessing Weekly Podcast, the podcast on all things geopolitics and forecasting. Today we are joined by GG alum David Manheim, lead researcher for the human challenge trial advocacy group 1DaySooner who previously appeared on The Right Side of Maybe to discuss his accuracy in forecasting Covid vaccines.
🎧 Listen to the episode: https://globalguessing.com/david-manh...
David received a PhD in Public Policy from Pardee Rand Graduate School focusing on risk analysis and decision theory. He has done work on a variety of grants and contracts to research existential risk mitigation, public health, computational modelling, and infectious disease epidemiology for organizations such as the RAND Corporation. In addition to his work with 1DaySooner, David currently works with the Foresight Institute, is a Superforecaster with Good Judgement Inc., and recently became a visiting professor at the Israel Institute of Technology "working to build interdisciplinary collaborations with technical researchers on the promises and risks of emerging technologies."
In this episode, you'll hear David talk about his work in biosecurity including the recent report he worked on for the Council on Strategic Risks, a US think tank, and his work with 1DaySooner on human challenge trials to learn how this change in vaccine testing could save millions of lives. We also chatted with David about the role that quantified forecasting currently plays in government policy and discuss why the technique is under-utilized. Finally, we get David’s thoughts on real-money prediction markets and the importance of question-quality in both prediction markets and platforms.
Note: This episode was recorded on July 29th.
David Manheim: / davidmanheim
1DaySooner: https://www.1daysooner.org/
The Global Guessing Weekly Podcast (GGWP) covers all things geopolitics and forecasting. Co-founders Clay Graubard and Andrew Eaddy speak with renowned forecasters, professors, investors, and each other, to understand the world and predict what happens in it. Tune in every week for new content. And don’t forget to sign up on our website to get new Global Guessing articles and videos directly to your inbox!
Website: https://globalguessing.com/
Twitter: / globalguessing
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Clay Graubard: / claygraubard
Andrew Eaddy: / andrewjeaddy
#Pandemics #ChallengeTrials #Podcast
Timeline:
00:00-01:40 | Introduction
01:41-12:30 | David's Background
12:31-49:25 | Vaccine Development, Pandemic Preparedness, Challenge Trials
49:26-57:44 | Forecasting in Government
57:45-1:06:37 | Rapid Fire Forecasts + Outro
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