What's next for China's economy?
Does the recent run of negative Chinese news indicate a persistent downtrend in growth, or is that assessment premature or perhaps simply wrong? The Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) holds a debate about the short- and medium-term outlook for Chinese economic growth. A moderated Q&A with Mary E. Lovely follows.
Panelists
Nicholas R. Lardy, PIIE nonresident senior fellow and leading scholar of the Chinese economy, challenges the view that China’s growth is now gripped by a severe downtrend that will persist for several years. Instead, Lardy contends that some recent data indicate that a fragile economic recovery may have already begun, though it is uncertain if it will take hold. His analysis can be found in a new PIIE blog.
Tianlei Huang, PIIE research fellow and China program coordinator, delves into the key indicators of China’s current troubles, including the slumping property sector, hamstrung local government finances, and the declining role of the private sector in the economy, which he and Nicolas Véron monitor semiannually in China’s state vs. private company tracker: Which sector dominates?
Adam S. Posen, PIIE president, argues that China is suffering from “economic long COVID,” due to the insecurity induced in average Chinese households and small businesses by the aggressive interventions of President Xi and the Chinese Communist Party since COVID, as he detailed in a recent essay in Foreign Affairs.
Moderator
Mary E. Lovely, Anthony M. Solomon Senior Fellow at PIIE and the previous Carnegie Chair in US-China Relations at the Library of Congress
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