Strong longtermism, Pascal's mugging, and whether existing is good for us | Hilary Greaves (2020)
Originally released October 2020. Had World War I never happened, you might never have existed.
It’s very unlikely that the exact chain of events that led to your conception would have happened if the war hadn’t — so perhaps you wouldn’t have been born. Would that mean that it’s better for you that World War 1 happened (regardless of whether it was better for the world overall)?
On the one hand, if you’re living a pretty good life, you might think the answer is yes – you get to live rather than not. On the other hand, it sounds strange to say that it’s better for you to be alive, because if you’d never existed there’d be no you to be worse off. But if you wouldn’t be worse off if you hadn’t existed, can you be better off because you do?
In this episode, philosophy professor Hilary Greaves – Director of Oxford University’s Global Priorities Institute – helps untangle this puzzle and walks us through the space of possible answers. She argues that philosophers have been too quick to conclude that it can’t be better for someone to exist vs. not.
Learn more and see the full transcript on the 80,000 Hours website: https://80000hours.org/podcast/episod...
Chapters:
• Rob’s intro (00:00:00)
• The interview begins (00:02:53)
• The Case for Strong Longtermism (00:05:49)
• Compatible moral views (00:20:03)
• Defining cluelessness (00:39:26)
• Why cluelessness isn’t an objection to longtermism (00:51:05)
• Theories of what to do under moral uncertainty (01:07:42)
• Pascal’s mugging (01:16:37)
• Comparing Existence and Non-Existence (01:30:58)
• Philosophers who reject existence comparativism (01:48:56)
• Lives framework (02:01:52)
• Global priorities research (02:09:25)
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