Ukraine just got Storm Shadow stealthy cruise missiles from UK
This newsflash video expands on the recent British announcement they're giving Storm Shadow cruise missiles to Ukraine. What could those missiles mean operationally for Ukraine? And how might they be used?
As this Storm Shadow video is already up and running, no real changes or additions can be made to the file. Yet, we forgot to mention a certain detail, and we prepped the video too quickly so we missed another certain detail that was in the news. So here’s a few textual additions to the video to try to right those wrongs.
In our desire to be very topical, we wrapped up writing the text by noon on Thursday, GMT. We forgot to mention that, of course, there are export variants of the Storm Shadow missile. In the past, certain Middle East clients had special variants sold to them, where the seller limited the range of the missiles. There are various versions of the story there - from the simplest one that MBDA says export variants have a range of over 250 km, to mentions of the range being 290 km, as to keep inside the Missile Technology Control Regime rules. To US protests of MBDA loosely defining those MTCR rules and that Storm Shadows sold to the Middle East actually exceeded 300 km. Indeed, defining range differently, there are sources mentioning exported Storm Shadow range being either 250 miles or 400 kilometers.
But ultimately, MTCR is basically just a political understanding between member countries and there have been many examples where missiles or Missile tech with a range of way more than 300 km have been exported to various countries. Including those that have not yet been members of the MTCR at the time. For example, Ukraine has been a member since 1998. Then again, MTCRrules say it doesn’t really matter if a country is a member, it still should not get long range missiles. But ultimately, there are no agreed repercussions for countries that do export such missile technology. Until one country pisses off another country and then - well, sanctions and other political pressure may start flying around.
So in the specific case of Ukraine getting Storm Shadows, what we know is this: the UK sent their own stock of missiles. Which are not the export variants. But which may have been modified further so their range is shortened. If that happened, that may’ve been using something as simple as a software limitation. Or it could be slightly modifying the fuel tanks so they hold less fuel. It seems apparent that the UK was working on supplying Ukraine with Storm Shadows for some months now and that all those modifications, as well as missile integration work on Ukrainian planes, was done in advance of the recent announcement. We already have some claims that Ukraine actually used Storm Shadows, attacking targets near Luhansk.
But the one quote that may be telling, which we managed to miss in our rush to get the video out quickly - was a quote from the British defense minister Ben Wallace. Talking to the British parliament on Thursday, he said: “The Russian Kalibr cruise missile has a range of over 2,000 km, roughly seven times that of the Storm Shadow missile.” So, taking that at face value, it would indeed seem that the UK chose to limit the range of Storm Shadows on their own, before sending those to Ukraine. A 290 km or 300 km range for Storm Shadows now seems likely. While that’s not enough to reach Moscow, it’s still quite deadly to many Russian targets way beyond the frontlines. Including reaching most targets in Crimea. And even theoretically reaching the Kerch bridge, if a risky air launch almost over the Dnipro river, west of Zaporizhzhia, is attempted. Of course, that’s not saying anything on just what sort of long term damage could be done to such a bridge with a missile, and how many missiles would have to be used. And crucially, the UK does not have to limit the missile to exactly 300 km. It could decide what the limit for Ukraine can be, and perhaps raise it a bit over the said figure, for extra safety during launch or additional routing options.
As the war goes on, and depending on the situation and Russian actions, it’s also not out of the question that Britain and other western Allies might change their mind and unlock the full range of the Storm Shadow. Anyway, we apologize for this added text, it would have been better if it was a part of the video right from the start. Being quick is good, but being thorough is even better.
Music by Matija Malatestinic http://www.malatestinic.com
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