The Prophets of Pharma: Forecasting Trends and Insights
Pharma Forecasting for an Indian Hospital:
Developed a forecasting model for a leading hospital in India to address increasing bounce rates at the pharmacy.
Bounce rate refers to patients unable to get prescribed drugs from the pharmacy, leading to patient dissatisfaction and revenue loss.
The model used 26+ forecasting techniques tailored to time-series data, addressing issues of overstocking (expired drugs leading to losses) and understocking (increased bounce rate).
The user interface allows users to choose drug categories, set confidence intervals, and view forecasted quantities alongside upper and lower bounds, considering seasonal disease changes in India.
The system is cloud-deployed, with data uploaded to AWS S3, enabling monitoring, maintenance, and periodic retraining to combat model drift.
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