Democratic Russia without Chechnya, why people hate America, stalemate in Ukraine – Fareed Zakaria
My guest today is Fareed Zakaria, one of the most influential political analysts and an expert in international relations. He hosts a CNN program, a column for The Washington Post, and also was a columnist for Newsweek and editor-in-chief of Time. We talked about whether developing countries will become liberal, why people hate America, what Russia would be like without the Chechen war and Putin, and what it will be like after the war in Ukraine. For Russian voiceover follow / @zygaro
00:00 Putin's invasion of Ukraine strengthened the liberal world. Putin's invasion of Ukraine also had a huge impact on the creation of the Ukrainian nation. The father of Ukrainian nationalism is Vladimir Putin.
4:49 The rise in the share of China, India, Brazil and Turkey in world GDP is changing the whole character of the international system. 20 years ago, the US did whatever it wanted. Europe, USA, Japan, South Korea, Canada, Australia - they account for about 65% of the world economy and 80% of world defense spending.
7:55 Putin is popular because in Brazil, Africa, South Asia and Latin America, he is seen as a leader who can stand up to America. Why do they hate America so much? In remote parts of the United States, people also believe that every New Yorker or Washington resident is part of a larger conspiracy. And in Russia: Moscow is in the center, which forms conspiracy theories.
17:38 In the Western world, there was at first rivalry between the king and the aristocrats. This led to a separation of powers. The rivalry between the king and the church - to the Reformation. What happened in the rest of the world?
19:20 Imagine that only two things have changed in Russia. First, Yeltsin did not react the way he did to the war in Chechnya. He could say, “Do you want to be independent? Walk with God!" Secondly, that one of the four previous prime ministers would become president. Putin was not Yeltsin's first choice. First there was Chernomyrdin, then Primakov, then Kiriyenko.
22:46 In 1999, when Putin came to power, civil society in Russia was the strongest among the new democracies. However, Putin decided to kill him.
24:50 Russia after Putin: From a cultural point of view, there is a very powerful idea of its unity. But I do believe that it needs to be managed in a completely different, more decentralized way. If you run such a large country from one city, the amount of power that needs to be concentrated in one hand is too much, and people in the regions have absolutely no influence on their own future. It is necessary that the Russians could feel like citizens of their country, part of a common enterprise.
26:59 The curse of Putin's war: I don't see a scenario for a quick end. I think the most likely option is that all this will lead to a stalemate. Attacks on power plants to deprive people of light and heat, strikes on residential areas in an attempt to drive the civilian population into a state of fear. All this they are very staunchly resist. But they will not be able to recapture the entire Donbass or Crimea. There are parts of Ukraine that are pro-Russian, Russian speakers. In these regions, some people believe that the Ukrainian government treated them badly. This is being inflated by the Russian media, but the truth is that such areas do exist in Donbas and Crimea. The Russians will be able to keep these regions. There will be a hopeless situation. Russia will be isolated from the world economy for a long time.
31:17 Nuclear weapons: Putin's FSB is his own communist party, an institutional control mechanism. I hope that there are procedures in the army related to the control of the use of nuclear weapons. But we know too little. And what is known is frightening.
33:50 The CIA predicted war in Ukraine, can they do the same to prevent a nuclear war? Putin will not use nuclear weapons because he weighs costs and gains. In the case of Ukraine, he miscalculated. When he did this before, the costs were small and the acquisitions meant a lot: Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Syria, Ukraine in 2014. Conventional bombing can do as much damage as tactical nuclear weapons. But the image of the use of nuclear weapons ... China, India, Brazil, South Africa will break off relations with him.
37:51 Post-Putin peace. First, Putin should not get away with it, it will destroy the foundation of the world order that was created after 1945. Aggression should not be rewarded. Secondly, it is necessary to find a way to take into account national interests. Putin as a person exists separately from Russia as a country. We must strive to find a place for Russia in the liberal Western world order, because it has potential.
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