Nasty Surprise If You Buy Nvidia (NVDA) Before Q4 Earnings
The video discusses the upcoming earnings announcement for NVIDIA and analyzes the stock's performance and expectations. The presenter expects a potential 10-20% pullback in the stock after earnings and suggests buying the dip at around $600.
Video Summary
[00:00]( • Nasty Surprise If You Buy Nvidia (NVD... ) Chris discusses the upcoming earnings announcement for NVIDIA and shares his approach to analyzing the stock before making a buying decision.
NVIDIA is known for representing AI and has seen significant stock growth.
Chris explains his approach to managing expectations based on his experiences in middle school.
By lowering expectations, Chris was able to exceed them and achieve better results.
[02:59]( • Nasty Surprise If You Buy Nvidia (NVD... ) Chris discusses how high expectations can put selling pressure on a stock, using Nvidia as an example.
High expectations make it harder for companies to meet or exceed them, leading to selling pressure on the stock.
Chris has successfully used a simple approach to analyze Nvidia's earnings in the past four quarters.
The chart shows Nvidia's earnings performance (orange line) and Wall Street's expectations (blue line).
Nvidia's shift to AI has raised expectations, and the company must now consistently perform to meet them.
[05:58]( • Nasty Surprise If You Buy Nvidia (NVD... ) NVIDIA stock has seen selling pressure after their report due to high expectations, while Palantir stock experienced a boost in price after low expectations were exceeded.
NVIDIA's stock has seen selling pressure despite beating expectations.
Palantir's stock saw a price increase after exceeding low expectations.
NVIDIA is currently not in a position to benefit from low expectations like Palantir.
The market has high expectations for NVIDIA, making it a crowded trade.
[08:57]( • Nasty Surprise If You Buy Nvidia (NVD... ) Chris discusses the stock price of Nvidia and predicts a potential 10-20% pullback after earnings, suggesting a buying opportunity around $600.
The stock price of Nvidia has crossed above $700, which is considered an important round number.
Earnings expectations have driven the stock price up to $700, but Chris believes it may tread water around this level.
In the past, Nvidia experienced a 20% pullback after beating earnings expectations, presenting a buying opportunity around $400-$420.
Chris predicts a potential 10-20% pullback after the upcoming earnings, suggesting a buying opportunity around $600.
[11:56]( • Nasty Surprise If You Buy Nvidia (NVD... ) Chris predicts a super cycle for AI, expects NVIDIA stock to reach $1,100, and suggests buying the dip at around $600.
The market is expected to enter a super cycle for AI, with the aggregate reaching $400 billion.
NVIDIA, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Apple are mentioned as companies that will be part of this super cycle.
Comments from management may affect stock prices in the short term, but analysts are likely to defend the stock and raise target prices.
Chris believes NVIDIA stock will reach $1,100 in the future and suggests buying the dip at around $600.
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