How to assess and maximize the carbon sequestration potential of Russian forests?
A. Pyzhev (SFU)
This presentation is a part of the conference "Paris Reinforce: Russia Stakeholder Workshop". You can watch the rest presentations here: https://ecfor.ru/publication/paris-re...
For citing: Pyzhev A. How to assess and maximize the carbon sequestration potential of Russian forests? [video] / A. Pyzhev // IEF RAS site. - 16 March 2021. - Paris Reinforce: Russia Stakeholder Workshop. - URL: https:// ecfor.ru/publication/paris-reinforce-klimaticheskaya-politika/ (requested: 12.07.2021).
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00:00:00 Russian forests
00:04:29 Carbon budget of russian forests
00:09:25 What can be done?
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The Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences (IEF RAS) specializes in fundamental, applied and exploratory scientific research in the field of analysis and forecasting of the socio-economic prospects of Russia and its regions, and the development of recommendations and proposals with a goal to improve the quality of economic policy in Russia.
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Notes:
Problem background
• Forests play the most important role in depositing carbon as they absorb
carbon to support their phytomass growth, thus acting as a major
regulator of the Earth's carbon balance.
• One of the most important elements of the global carbon budget is the
boreal forest ecosystems, which have accumulated about one-third of
the world's carbon stock: 997 ± 84 Pg of CO2-equivalent (Pan et al., 2011).
• The particular importance of boreal forests is ensured by the fact that,
unlike tropical forests, they do not experience the effect of intensive
reductions as a result of predation (Bager et al., 2021).
Russian forests: overview
• 815 mln ha = 20% of the global forest area.
• 38% of the total carbon stock of the world's boreal forest ecosystems.
• According to current official estimates, Russian forests (LULUCF sector)
compensate for 26.6% of national greenhouse gas emissions.
• Huge reserves of forests is the most important natural advantage of
Russia in the struggle for the future competitiveness of the national
economy through the implementation of measures to increase carbon
sequestration by forest ecosystems
How to improve the current official forest carbon budget estimates
• Low quality and relevance of State Forest Registry data (average renewal
rate is 25 years) is a commonly recognized shortcoming.
• Results of State forest inventory might be used to justify the SFR, but 3—
4 years are needed to process the data. Results could rise by 30%.
• The estimates are solely based on terrestrial techniques and official state
forest data (as it is prescribed by the IPCC guidelines) ignoring the
satellite imagery products.
Economic potential of ROBUL-based mitigation strategy (calculation exercise)
• Сost of CO2 ton sequestration = $41.2 in 2020.
• Annual gain of mitigation projects is $8.3 bln in 2020 growing up to $33.3
bln in 2065.
• $10.2 per ha of forest area per year could be spent on the proposed
mitigation projects (not accounted for discount rate) growing up to
$40.8 in 2065.
• All $ are 2015 USD.
• Results are comparable to the literature (e.g., Eriksson et al., 2018).
Improving the control for forest disturbances
• The rate of forest fires is growing up due to climate change.
• One of the major source of forest fires are insect pests' outbreaks
including the species of pests moving to new areas.
• Most part of fires are occurring in the remote places and could not be
extinguished with a reasonable resource investment.
• Forest road density is also a limiting factor.
• A detailed economic assessment is needed.
Forest conservation projects
• There were some pioneer forest conservation projects in Russia (Bikin,
RUSAL).
• According to the report from Bikin project, its total cost annual cost was
$9.9 mln for 400,000 ha, which corresponds to $24.8 per ha in 2010.
• RUSAL project is reported to cost 20 mln RUB per ha in 2020.
• New initiative of “carbon polygons” (incl. 8 planned sites in different
regions) needs some further discussion.
Conclusion
• Despite all the known issues of the actual system of Russian forest carbon budget estimation, there are evident ways to improve the scientific
validity of the estimates not compromising the national interest.
• Consensus view of all the parties is that the dataset under the carbon
budget estimation must be justified with new data, especially from state
forest inventory project.
• Mitigation strategies and projects must be thoroughly and openly
discussed and economically evaluated.
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