British intelligence has shown that the momentum of the war has shifted since the beginning of May, suggesting that Russia is no longer in control of the situation in Ukraine and is instead merely reacting.
In its war intelligence update, the British Ministry of Defence noted that since the beginning of May 2023, Russia has lost more and more of its initiative in the conflict and now merely reacts to Ukrainian aggression rather than actively advancing its own military goals.
The term "initiative" is used to describe a military force's ability to set the terms and pace of a war by acting proactively and offensively.
A team with the initiative has the upper hand because it can force the other team to take a defensive stance and force them to react to their moves instead of making their own.
In the end, taking the initiative means dictating the pace and layout of the battlefield and making the opposition play by your rules.
According to Ukrainian military intelligence, Russia has been launching drone and missile barrages against Ukraine all month long, with 20 nights' worth of one-way unmanned aerial vehicle and cruise missile attacks deep within Ukrainian territory.
Russian attempts to undermine Ukraine's fortified air defences and wipe out the country's anti-aggressive forces have largely failed.
According to the report, the Russian high command is gearing up for the long-awaited counter-offensive by the Ukrainian government to reclaim occupied territories using the most up-to-date Western weapon systems.
In preparation for what they expect to be a counterattack from the Ukrainian side, Russian commanders are likely trying to muster reserve forces and deploy them to strategic locations.
However, rather than the buildup of strategic reserves, it is likely that the deployment of uncommitted forces to patch up the front line in and around important strategic locations has hampered these efforts.
Eastern City was the longest and bloodiest battlefront of the war, and Russia temporarily took control of it earlier this month. Thousands of soldiers on both sides died there over the course of nearly a year.
The Russians' ability to prepare for a focused Ukrainian counteroffensive would be hampered if they had to focus on securing this city instead.
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